With early voting underway in several states ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, Democrats are confronting questions about whether their traditional advantage in absentee and early ballots will translate into the electoral gains they are seeking.Democrats have relied heavily on early and mail-in voting in recent elections, often building substantial participation advantages before Republicans turn out in larger numbers on Election Day, National Review noted in an analytical report this week.
But changing voting habits, increased Republican participation in advance voting and uncertainty about the composition of this year’s electorate have complicated efforts to interpret the early numbers.
Writing in National Review, Noah Rothman argued that Democrats face their own version of the anxiety that has surrounded Republican attitudes toward early voting in recent election cycles.
While Democrats continue to demonstrate strong early-voting participation, Rothman suggested that their advantage may not be as decisive as some party supporters expect.
The initial figures nevertheless contain encouraging signs for Democrats.
According to an October 1 analysis by CNN, more than 700,000 Americans had already voted across at least 30 states.
In several states with important Senate and gubernatorial contests, Democratic voters accounted for a larger percentage of absentee ballot requests than they did at the same point in 2024.
In Iowa, Democrats represented 67% of ballot requests, compared with 54% at the corresponding point two years earlier.
Pennsylvania Democrats accounted for 66%, up from 62%, while Democrats in Maine represented 57%, compared with 53% in 2024.
Those figures measure requests rather than completed votes, however, and cannot establish which candidates voters ultimately supported, National Review noted.
They also represent an early snapshot of a voting process that will continue for several weeks.
Republicans, meanwhile, have increasingly emphasized voting before Election Day.
The shift follows years of disagreement within the party over mail ballots and other alternatives to traditional Election Day voting.
President Donald Trump repeatedly questioned mail voting during earlier election cycles, while Republican campaign organizations have sought to encourage supporters to use legally available early-voting options.
The issue remains divisive among voters. A Pew Research Center survey conducted in April found that 81% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents supported allowing voters to cast early or absentee ballots without providing a specific reason.
Only 34% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents agreed. That compares with 57% Republican support for unrestricted early or absentee voting in 2018.
Also, the outlet’s analysis noted that differences in voting methods can make early returns misleading.
Research compiled by the early-voting analysis project Who Shows Up found that mail voters have generally favored Democrats in recent presidential and congressional elections.
In-person early voters, however, have demonstrated different partisan preferences.
In 2024, early in-person voters favored Republicans by approximately 15 percentage points, according to the project’s analysis of Cooperative Election Study data.
The findings illustrate why combining mail ballots and in-person early votes into a single category can obscure important differences in voter behavior.
The broader political environment also matters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday found that 48% of voters who supported Kamala Harris in 2024 described themselves as very enthusiastic about voting in November. Among voters who supported Trump, the figure was 30%.
The survey included 4,506 American adults and had a margin of error of approximately two percentage points.
The findings suggest Democrats currently have an enthusiasm advantage, although enthusiasm surveys do not directly measure how many people will ultimately cast ballots.
Early voting began Tuesday in Ohio, where voters lined up before dawn at some polling locations.
Reuters reported that Democrats outnumbered Republicans and independents among first-day voters in Medina County, an area with a Republican registration advantage.
The state features a competitive Senate contest between Republican Jon Husted and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, along with closely watched congressional races.
Still, a single county’s first-day turnout provides limited information about statewide voting patterns.
Election analysts caution against treating early-voting statistics as election forecasts.
Party registration does not necessarily indicate how someone voted, and a surge in early participation can reflect existing supporters voting sooner rather than an increase in a party’s overall electorate.
State election laws, ballot-request deadlines and reporting practices also vary considerably.
Those differences make direct comparisons between states and election cycles difficult.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
